Formula One has already indicated that it is in no rush to make a decision and will give those countries as much time as needed. By the time any call was made, it would likely be too late in the year, weather and daylight-wise, to host a race in Northamptonshire, the United Kingdom.
That is to say nothing of the fact that Silverstone would be unlikely to want to pay a hosting fee for helping F1 out. Indeed, it might want to be paid.
One conceivable way Silverstone might come into play would be if Azerbaijan (September 26) came under threat if the conflict escalated between now and then, and a call was made early enough. But even then, it is difficult to see where Silverstone could slot into a busy calendar without breaking F1’s summer shutdown.
At the moment, it feels there is more chance of either Bahrain or Saudi Arabia – the two races cancelled last month – making their way back onto the calendar, most likely in October. That possibility is being actively discussed, should conditions allow.
F1 admitted there were “headaches and complexities” over navigating the schedule, but insisted it was too early to make a call on the Middle East rounds later this year.
“Everyone can look at the TV, see the news every day that the situation is so fluid and so dynamic,” Liam Parker, F1’s chief corporate relations officer, said in the same Sky News report. “Nobody knows what’s going to happen tomorrow, let alone in September and October.”
If the worst does happen, and F1 is obliged to cancel races in Qatar or Abu Dhabi, or both, there is no contractual obligation to replace them.
Unlike during Covid, when F1 needed to fulfil the minimum number of events that it had guaranteed as part of its big-money TV deals, this time there is no threat to the minimum race requirement. F1 could choose to reduce the season to 20 or 21 races.
There would likely be significantly more pressure to replace them, however. Certainly more than there was to replace Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
This is because teams will be scrapping by then to finish as high as possible in the constructors’ and drivers’ championships.
Anyone just behind will want the chance to eat into their deficit. Rights holders would also expect big audience figures for races at that stage of the season.
Given the time of year, any replacement would likely have to be outside Europe. Telegraph Sport understands that Istanbul, which is returning to the calendar for 2027, might not be ready by then. Alternatives could be Fuji in Japan or Sepang in Malaysia, a return to Suzuka, also in Japan, or Melbourne.
But again, everything would have to be weighed against the freight costs and the lack of hosting fees, plus the logistical challenges of getting the sport out to any venue. Doubling up at one of the existing autumn venues might be a better option.
When it comes to money, it is difficult to know exactly what the lost races this year cost F1, or how much more it might lose should more fall off the calendar.
One analyst report from Guggenheim Partners estimated that F1 lost about £150 million ($346m), and about £60m ($138m) in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda), from the two cancelled races.
Bahrain and Saudi Arabia collectively pay about £85m ($196m) in hosting fees each year. But it is unclear how the commercial deals are structured, whether those countries have made a commitment to making up the shortfall or if that is still being worked out.
It is understood that when Australia was forced to cancel its 2020 and 2021 grands prix because of Covid, it paid out US$100m ($171m) for both races before it returned to the calendar in 2022. There may well be a similar arrangement here.
