Labor’s candidate for the Aston by-election has detailed her ambition to take the seat in a “history making” effort, as polls open.
Mary Doyle, who gained a massive 7.3 per cent swing for the party in the Federal election, said she has no qualms about not being the favourite to win in Saturday’s poll.
“I really hope I can win it but I realise it’s a very big mountain to climb but I have never shied away from climbing mountain, even with a dodgy knee,” she told Today.
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“I was born in the year of the dog and I hope this will be the year of the underdog.”
The breakfast show’s reporter went on to clarify if Labor nabs the seat it will be “history making” as no government has taken a seat off the Opposition in a by-election in more than 100 years.
The seat of Aston was created in 1984 and was held by Labor until 1990, but it has not won it since.
However, the Liberal party is expected to hold on to the seat in the first electoral test for both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.
The Liberals hold the previously safe outer east suburban seat – vacated by former minister Alan Tudge when he retired in February — on a 2.8 per cent margin after a massive swing against the party at last year’s election.
Five candidates are standing in Saturday’s by-election, but the main fight is between Labor’s Ms Doyle and the Liberal’s Roshena Campbell, a barrister and former Melbourne City councillor.
Both sides say it will be a tough fight, but expect the Liberals to hold on.
“I think it is tight, but we will get there,” Mr Dutton said on Friday.
But the by-election is also being framed as a test of the leaders, especially Mr Dutton who took over the leadership of the Liberal party from Scott Morrison after the coalition was thrown out of government.
The Prime Minister told the Labor caucus earlier this week that anything less than a five per cent swing to the opposition would be a “failure” for the Opposition Leader.
When asked whether a poor showing would prove his leadership was terminal, Mr Dutton took a page out of the Morrison playbook, labelling it as “Canberra gossip”.
“I am concentrating on making sure Roshena Campbell is sitting in parliament next week because the seat of Aston deserves a very strong local member and that is what this by-election is about,” he said during the week.
The Liberal campaign has focused on cost of living pressures.
“There’s an opportunity here to send a message to Labor that it’s just not good enough because living pressures continue to go up,” Mr Dutton said.
The unpopularity of Scott Morrison, paired with the controversy surrounding Alan Tudge, contributed to a 7.3 per cent two party swing against the Liberals in Aston last May.
The result of the by-election will have no effect on the make-up of the house of representatives.
But after a bruising defeat in NSW left Tasmania as the only blue state, the Liberals will be looking to the results for a morale boost.
Mr Albanese says it would be “very difficult” for Ms Doyle to topple the Liberals as history was against them. As are the polls. No government has won a seat off the opposition in more than a century.
“The Liberals should retain Aston with a massive majority,” he told reporters in Brisbane on Friday.
“The fact that the Liberal Party are having to spend so much money, and they have massively out-spent Labor in this by-election in order to hang on to one of their heartland seats says everything about the state of the Liberal Party brand.”
Meanwhile, the Australian Electoral Commission is urging all voters in Aston to ensure they vote in by-election, reminding them it is compulsory.
Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said he was concerned by the low number of votes cast ahead of polling day.
“Typically, if someone casts their vote early in one election they’ll do so in the next one as well – and we’re not quite seeing that here which makes us worry about low participation,” he said.
“Failure to vote may result in a fine and will mean you have no say on who represents you in federal parliament.”
Aside from Ms Campbell and Ms Doyle, another three candidates are standing. They are Owen Miller for the Fusion Party, Angelica Di Camillo for the Greens and independent Maya Tesa.
There will be 32 polling places open on Saturday from 8am to 6pm. A total of 110,331 people are enrolled in Aston.
Counting will begin at 6pm.
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