​

Every year the Stuff team of political reporters sits down and does the unthinkable: Try to predict the future.

In the interests of full accountability, we come back the following year and mark our predictions, then get our scoring assessed by someone who doesn’t work for us. Come back tomorrow for our predictions for 2024.

Anything can happen in an election year, but while we were able to predict a decent amount of what 2023 had in store, we missed one crucial event that had ramifications for the entire year of politics.

Here’s what we predicted, and how accurate those predictions turned out to be:

Prediction: Covid-19 will no longer play a meaningful role in politics for the first time since 2020. The consequences of Covid will continue to play out, but regardless of case numbers, the political train will have moved on.

Outcome: 10/10. In August, the last remaining pandemic-related public health orders expired. The role of Covid Response Minister no longer exists.

Prediction: At least one leader of a major political party will no longer be leader, or will have announced their exit, by the end of the year.

Outcome: 10/10. While no leader resigned after the election result, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern started the year by announcing her resignation.

Prediction: Airfares will continue to be expensive and Air New Zealand’s fares, in particular, will become a political headache for the Government.

Outcome: 5/10. Airfare are really expensive, but our prediction falls short on the second half. The ghastly price of travel does not appear to be a political headache for the Government.

Prediction: After a busy year of post-Covid travel, Jacinda Ardern will make a trip to China, being the first leader to do so since 2016 and the first since Xi Jinping has really started asserting his authority over the country.

Outcome: 8/10. The Prime Minister, who was Chris Hipkins – not Ardern – did visit China. In June, he met with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Ardern resigning was not on our bingo card – but if we can ignore that slight detail, this prediction is more or less 100%.

Prediction: With the major three waters legislation shepherded through Parliament, Nanaia Mahuta will lose the local government portfolio in a cabinet reshuffle, but she will retain foreign affairs.

Outcome: 10/10. One of Hipkins’ first acts as prime minister was to reshuffle the ministers, taking the local government portfolio off Mahuta. He did so shortly before visiting Waitangi, where he faced criticism from iwi leaders who supported Mahuta.

Prediction: There will be a new political party in Parliament. Whether it is an NZ First comeback, TOP, New Conservatives or another party, the times seem right for a political disrupter to come to the people’s house. This is extremely rare in New Zealand politics and tough to do, but 2023 could just be the year.

Outcome: 10/10. Winston Peters is back in the building.

Prediction: There will be another sizeable anti-government/vaccine type protest out the front of Parliament, although it will last only for a day.

Outcome: ⅒. There were many protests, many pandemic-inspired, through 2023. But nothing compared the occupation and riot in 2022, which lasted almost four weeks.

Prediction: The Māori Party will win two electorates: Rawai Waititi’s current seat of Waiariki and the seat of Te Tai Hauāuru, which Speaker of the House and MP since 2014 Adrian Rurawhe is not expected to recontest. The party will bring in at least one other MP from its list.

Outcome: 1/10. Te Pāti Māori won six – not two – electorates. Te Tai Hauāuru did, indeed, turn to Debbie Ngarewa-Packer – but so too did almost every other Māori electorate. One point for guessing an increase to Te Pāti Māori ranks.

Prediction: Ayesha Verrall will become the health minister, while the overworked and underrated Andrew Little will be moved on to other portfolios as part of the reshuffle at the start of the year.

Outcome: 10/10. Ayesha Verrall took over the health ministry, and remains Labour’s heath spokesperson. Andrew Little focused on security-related roles.

Prediction: Transport Minister Michael Wood will be compelled to write Auckland a big cheque for light rail in the face of Mayor Wayne Brown’s refusal to pay for the current plan, or the plan will be changed, yet again.

Outcome: 0/10. No such cheque arrived. Little progress was made towards actually building Auckland Light Rail, before the change of government. The project is now on the chopping project.

Prediction: Labour MPs Deborah Russell, Barbara Edmonds and Duncan Webb will all be promoted into Ardern’s ministry.

Outcome: 9/10. All three became ministers, although they became ministers following Ardern’s resignation – which then triggered a ministerial reshuffle.

Prediction: More Labour Cabinet ministers will announce their retirement before the general election.

Outcome: 10/10. A number of Labour Cabinet ministers “resigned” or were forced out of Cabinet in 2023: Stuart Nash, Michael Wood, and Kiri Allan. While Nash was required to go, Wood and Allan “resigned” amid scandal.

Poto Williams announced her retirement before the election, delivering a valedictory as the House wrapped ahead of the election.

Prediction: When the Green Party holds its AGM and the co-leadership positions fall vacant current co-leader James Shaw will be re-elected without any fuss, unlike this year. Marama Davidson will remain leader.

Outcome: 10/10. Being an election year, the Greens decided to focus their energies on fighting other parties rather than their own.

Prediction: New Zealand will go into recession. However, it won’t officially be a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – until after the election.

Outcome: 4/10. The economy entered a technical recession at the start of the year, with Stats NZ reporting two consecutive quarters of negative growth. In the quarter ending December 2022, growth was -0.6% followed by -0.2% in the first quarter of 2023. Mid-2023, the economy grew, but the latest figures show negative growth of -0.3%. Given June’s growth, a recession was not declared after the election.

Prediction: Inflation – as measured through the Consumer Price Index – won’t fall below 6.5% prior to the election. But the Reserve Bank won’t need to ratchet up interest rates any higher than its currently predicted high water mark of 5.5%, and Adrian Orr and the bank’s monetary policy committee may be able to stop south of that.

Outcome: 0/10. Inflation dropped to 5.6% just before the election.

Prediction: Te Whatu Ora’s Health New Zealand’s backlog of elective surgeries will remain and even blow out further, from about 5.2 months of extra work estimated in October.

Outcome: 4/10. The elective surgery backlog has not got worse in most areas. There remain significant issues with accessing elective surgeries in Canterbury, but in other areas – especially Auckland – waitlists have significantly declined since last year.

Prediction: The drop in house prices will stabilise by the middle of the year.

Outcome: 10/10. Right on target, according to data from QV the national average house price stabilised and started moving slightly upwards from June 2023.

Prediction: A potential 4 year-term for parliament will become the subject of more serious debate and perhaps a campaign in the coming year.

Outcome: 10/10. The prospect of a four-year term is seriously on the table, thanks to ACT leader David Seymour. Most parties appear to support the idea as well. In the National-ACT coalition deal, the Government agreed to start the legislative process to extend the term of Parliament.

Prediction: Jacinda Ardern will continue to be preferred prime minister in public polls up until the election.

Outcome: 0/10. Ardern maintained the lead as preferred prime minister, up to her resignation. And following her resignation, Chris Hipkins kept a lead on Luxon – right up until crunch point. Around August and September, National leader Christopher Luxon started getting ahead of Labour’s leaders in the preferred prime minister stakes.

Prediction: Regardless of whether Labour forms Government after the election, at least 18 of its MPs will lose their jobs.

Outcome: 10/10. Losing 18 seats would have been relatively good for Labour. At October’s election, 28 of its MPs lost their jobs.

Prediction: With the FIFA Women’s World Cup – co-hosted by New Zealand finishing in late August, and the Men’s Rugby World Cup finishing on October 28 in France, the general election will be held on the second or fourth Saturday of November.

Outcome: 0/10. The election was held right in the midst of the Rugby World Cup.​​​​​​​

Total score for 2023 predictions:

132/210: 63%

Not bad – a 10% improvement from last year’s crystal ball gazing result.