OPINION

The rise of Hoskins Sotutu and the demise of the Crusaders are the early-season storylines emerging from Super Rugby Pacific, but some caution should be applied before assuming these themes will still be
dominating the narrative when the monsoon rains of winter start arriving.

The Blues No 8, after being ditched by the All Blacks last year, has begun the season by scoring five tries, punching big holes with his ball-carrying and seemingly being omnipresent, while the defending champions have slumped to consecutive defeats and, for now at least, have lost their mojo.

No one could possibly have predicted that, after two rounds, Sotutu would be the competition’s leading try-scorer and the Crusaders would have a solitary point, only holding 10th place ahead of the Fijian Drua by virtue of their superior points difference.

For a competition that has been branded as having the deathly-dull predictability and established routines of middle-class suburbia, these are welcome departures from the norm.

Sotutu is proving one of the oldest truisms in professional sport – and life – that adversity can be a powerful force for good.

Last year, he felt the full cruelty of the business he’s in and, after three years of having been a regular squad pick for the national team, he was no longer wanted in World Cup year.

His ousting was never publicly explained, but the implications were clear enough – that the All Blacks selectors felt other loose forwards were better suited to providing the combative, direct, confrontational approach they were looking for on both sides of the ball.

The likes of Luke Jacobson and Samipeni Finau were deemed to be more mentally resilient and likely to stay in the fight.

It was also that they knew where the fight was and were more regularly up for it.

Sotutu, for his part, could hardly feel too hard done by as he was one of a handful of Blues players who went missing entirely in the semifinal against the Crusaders, in which the defending champions used their set-piece power and tight running angles to obliterate their rivals 52-15.

Presumably, the specifics of why he wasn’t selected were explained to him in private and by the way he has started in 2024, the message was received and understood.

His five tries have grabbed the headlines, but they are merely the by-product of his improved work rate and his desire to run through tackles as opposed to around them.

He’s been quicker to get to his feet, hungrier to be close to the ball and his three tries in Melbourne signified that he’s also hitting contact in a lower, more dynamic body position.

But what will have impressed the All Blacks selectors who were in attendance in Melbourne is the way Sotutu shrugged off making a few mistakes; the effort he showed in scrambling back on defence, that he’s playing closer to the ruck and his typical running line is straighter than it was any time last year.

Sotutu may be making fewer running metres than he was last year, but they are more valuable metres; harder to win because they are gained in places his team needs to be going forward.

All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan will also like the general sense of Sotutu reacting positively to the disappointments he suffered last year, but as a veteran of Super Rugby himself, he knows that the competition presents certain opportunities in late summer when the ground is hard, the ball is dry and most games are open and frenetic, before morphing into something closer in nature to test matches as the winter grips.

He’ll start to take more notice of Sotutu, or at least believe the 25-year-old has genuinely turned a corner, if he’s still as influential in late May as he is in late February, and if he’s able to graft and grind with such good effect when it’s a blood-and-guts thriller against the Chiefs in a hostile Hamilton, or an arm wrestle with the Brumbies in a freezing cold Canberra.

And just as two promising games is not a strong enough evidential base to be convinced about Sotutu, nor are the Crusaders’ opening two defeats reason to declare the end of their dynasty.

They have had a bad start – their worst since 2014 – and they have, of course, lost experienced personnel and their most successful coach in history.

They certainly look wobbly, less cohesive and less able to withstand the sort of mental pressures they used to absorb with ease.

But this is a club that has always been able to adapt, to bring new players and coaches into their system and deliver a blueprint of resilient, smart, effective rugby.

The Crusaders may experience a few more bumps in the road to recovery, and 2024 may see them sit outside their usual place in the top four for much of the campaign, but come the knockout rounds, it’s hard to believe they won’t be there, more defiant, organised and innovative than they currently appear to be.