Climate reporter Olivia Wannan breaks down progress at the COP28 climate summit over the past two weeks.

ANALYSIS: It was the first UN climate meeting headed by an oil chief.

It also produced the first agreement that the world might, in fact, have to shift away from the fossil fuels that are cooking the planet.

Strangely enough, the Paris Agreement – the pact between 197 countries to limit global heating – never once mentions fossil fuels. That was tactical – to get the countries heavily dependent on coal, oil and gas exports for revenue on board. The host of this year’s talks, the United Arab Emirates, is one of them.

Other big producers – such as Iran, Nigeria, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – have successfully fought previous efforts to get a promise on paper to phase out planet-heating fuels.

While scientists and energy experts have repeatedly warned the Paris Agreement goals cannot be met without a rapid phase-down of fossil fuels, political powerhouse China also opposed attempts at the previous two summits, COP26 and COP27, to forge this type of commitment.

COP28 was the biggest climate meeting ever. An estimated 97,000 people arrived in-person at some point during the two-week talks, with another 3000 attending remotely.

Roughly a quarter were from governments: ministers, diplomats and negotiators. On top, there were nearly 4000 journalists and 14,000 people from non-profits – plus up to 22,500 staff.

The biggest group – 28,000 people – had “overflow badges”, meaning they’d signed up via their government because they had an interest in climate talks. These attendees might lead a carbon offset company or an oil giant (analysis suggests about 2500 fossil fuel lobbyists stopped by COP28) and spend much of their time networking.

Indications that the summit might produce a climate breakthrough didn’t appear promising. Not only was Dubai, a city made rich on the proceeds of oil, the host venue – but the UAE had appointed Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the head of the state-owned oil company with expansion plans, to be COP28 president.

It’s a fairly powerful role. While the person must get diverging factions to agree, the president and supporting team can influence the summit’s agenda and draft the compromise proposals that countries discuss and vote on.

Before becoming the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Al Jaber had a background in renewable energy. But climate activists’ wariness grew after reports that the UAE planned to use the climate talks to make oil deals. Al Jaber also received condemnation after claiming during a debate that “there is no science out there… that says that the phase out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5 [degrees]”.

Keeping 1.5 alive

What it would take to meet the 1.5C climate benchmark was a key item on the agenda.

The Paris Agreement requires a regular “global stocktake” – an assessment on progress (or lack of) on the enshrined targets – every five years. The first needed to take place in 2023, whether Al Jaber wanted it on the agenda or not.

To no one’s surprise, the 197 countries concluded well before the Dubai talks that the world was not on track to the Paris goals of 1.5C or “well below” 2C. Almost every year, humanity produces even more greenhouse gas than the year before – and 2023 will be no exception. Even while the US and European countries’ carbon footprints look to be shrinking, that’s more than being offset by emissions growth elsewhere, research found.

Over the two weeks, Al Jaber and international diplomats had to produce an appropriate response to that stark reality.

Helpfully, the International Energy Agency provided a blueprint outlining what it would take to achieve 1.5C. The laundry list included some less controversial steps, such as a global tripling of renewable energy by 2030, a doubling of energy efficiency and investment in electricity transmission.

Early on in the talks, more than 100 countries signed up to achieve – at a global level – these first two tasks. New Zealand, despite a little dithering, was one.

But the energy boffins also had a to-do list for the fossil fuel industry: to urgently plug the potent methane it leaks to the atmosphere from mines, wells and pipes plus to wind down investment – first up, by halting the search for new coal, oil and gas. With the sector’s wealth, power and influence, these proposals are less palatable to some countries’ politicians.

Yet as global heating of 1.3C unleashes deadly heatwaves, wildfires and storms (such as Cyclone Gabrielle), more than half the countries attending COP28 wanted some sort of agreement to phase out, or down, fossil fuels.

That was a priority for New Zealand – and the recent election of the National-led Government didn’t change that stance.

While criticisms of the COP (United Nations Climate Change Conference) system are plenty, one strength of these summits is that in the negotiating rooms and on the voting floor, diplomats from a climate-threatened country like Tuvalu are face-to-face with those from nations such as Saudi Arabia and China.

Interestingly, Al Jaber furthered this tactic at the talks, hosting a “Majlis” (Arabic for council), where single ministers – with minimal support from diplomats – were seated in a circle and debated the summit’s sticking points.

Wording matters

When the talks closed Wednesday (Dubai time), Al Jaber said countries had forged an historic consensus. “We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement for the first time ever.”

That’s true – and still, many climate-threatened countries would have left the talks disappointed that stronger promises were not made.

COP has its own language. Some wording requires a country to do something, while other phrases are softer and more encouraging.

To force all 197 countries (known as parties to the Paris Agreement) to get out of coal, oil and gas, an agreement would need to say something like: “Each party shall phase out fossil fuels in line with 1.5C pathways”. If there’s a shall, the action is supposed to be compulsory.

But if anything like that was included during the final voting session of the talks, countries from Saudi Arabia to China would likely have walked out, and talks would have collapsed.

The agreed document “calls on parties to contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches… transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

Accelerating efforts to phase-down “unabated” coal power is also on the suggested to-do list, as is tripling renewable energy, “substantially reducing” methane emissions by 2030 and rapidly deploying zero-emissions vehicles.

Notably, countries have been called on, urged and emphasised to take action in this type of agreement and not done so. For example, the COP26 agreement urged developed countries to stump up with the $100 billion promised to developing nations – a milestone that was still incomplete at COP27 and might just have been achieved this year.

All countries that hadn’t submitted a recent carbon-cutting promise were also urged two years ago to provide a tougher target, but there have been few consequences for governments like Russia that failed to do so.

Climate and politics expert Bronwyn Hayward said the Paris Agreement has no direct penalties – by design. Only “peer pressure” incentivises the countries to fulfil their promises, she said.

Despite any softness in the fossil fuel wording, it will act as “a form of diplomatic pressure with a hint of shaming those who fail to take part in a global effort”.

Hayward noted that global diplomacy is particularly strained at the moment, due to war between Israel and Hamas on top of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

“This clause enables countries to stay in the room and keep working on making changes, recognising at least that fossil fuels are significant drivers of climate change, and that economies globally need to transition away – but how they do that is very different in countries like New Zealand with significant hydro energy and states where entire regimes are built on oil.”

Sustainability expert Laura Gemmell, chief executive of Eco Choice Aotearoa, remained disappointed there was so much wiggle room. “We’re closer than we’ve ever been. But especially for the Pacific Islands, I think it’s gut-wrenching when you look at the impacts they’re already facing.”

In other rooms

Debate on the future of fossil fuels was part of a wider summit agenda. Countries also discussed climate finance, progress reports and the carbon credits that will become available to trade and purchase.

Ironing out these issues is vital to ensuring the spirit of the Paris Agreement is achieved. With Kiwi diplomats becoming well-versed in the matters over the years, they are often shoulder-tapped to lead negotiations. But the debate is now focused on nuances and details, so progress rarely grabs headlines.

A key win came early in the COP28 talks: negotiators came to a consensus on the general framework for a “loss and damage” fund, where the countries that have contributed the most to global warming can offer money to affected communities. It will initially be hosted by the World Bank – but since developing countries aren’t keen on this, the idea is to transition it out after a few years.

Developed nations Germany, Italy and France each pledged US$100 million (NZ$160m) towards the fund. Interestingly, host UAE made a similar commitment – setting a precedent.

Traditionally, climate finance is provided by developing countries (defined by those on a list drafted in the early 1990s) to developed countries. The UAE is typically classed as developing, so its offer breaks the mould. There’s pressure for big emitters China and India to also contribute to this fund.

Gemmell said progress on loss and damage was exciting, but compared it to “a band-aid when you don’t have the agreement to phase out fossil fuels”.

Large pledges – for annual, not one-off, amounts – were necessary, but she would only celebrate when Pacific nations “got some of that cash to do some of the incredible adaptation work that they’ve come up with”.

The summit didn’t complete everything on the to-do list – for example, work on adaptation will continue at future meetings.

Talks have closed, but Al Jaber’s job isn’t done. He will retain the presidency role until the official opening of COP29. This will be hosted by another oil-producing country: the Eastern European nation Azerbaijan.

COP30 will be held in Brazil.