SpaceX’s huge Starship rocket blew up this week on its second test flight. It also blew up on its first test flight back in April.

Does that put One NZ’s promise of mobile-to-satellite
service in 2024 at risk?

It goes like this: Last year on April 3, on the day his firm rebranded from Vodafone NZ, One NZ chief executive Jason Paris said, “Currently, our mobile networks cover 98 per cent of where New Zealanders live and work. But if you combine all telcos’ mobile towers, only 50 per cent of New Zealand’s landmass has mobile coverage. Our collaboration with SpaceX will mean in 2024, all of Aotearoa will have mobile coverage – and that’s out to the territorial boundaries – first through text message.” Voice and data services would follow over the next couple of years.

Paris was referring to SpaceX’s pending “Direct to Cell” service, which will see thousands of satellites in the firm’s low-Earth-orbit network operating as “cell towers in the sky”. There have long been chunky, big-antenna satellite phones for communication from anywhere. But the revolutionary Direct to Cell service uses 5G frequencies, meaning it can be used with any modern cellphone, with no modifications required.

After a nudge from the Commerce Commission in July, One NZ dialled down its “100 per cent mobile coverage. Launching 2024” campaign in favour of a new “Coverage like never before” tagline, with the pledge that: “We’ll be launching with an SMS service by the end of 2024, with data and voice to follow in 2025.”

There was one wrinkle, however. Although Starlink already had around 4000 satellites in orbit (used for broadband by people who plonk a Starlink dish on their roof), Direct to Cell required larger “V2″ satellites, packing upgraded technology.

The V2 birds were too large for SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, but that was by the by because Musk’s firm would soon be launching its much larger Starship.

But while each Starship launch has been a valuable learning experience – and it seems the latest only exploded after it attempted re-entry (the rocket is designed to be fully re-usable), there’s still no timeline for its first commercial launch.

Elon Musk isn’t always great with deadlines at the best of times (just ask anyone who ordered a Cybertruck back in 2019 for 2021 delivery).

And Ars Technica – while very bullish on Musk’s firm overall – said on Direct to Cell: “The 2025 and 2026 service upgrades for Direct to Cell most likely depend on getting the big rocket up and running, so like all SpaceX projects, you should take these timelines with a grain of salt.” (And it should be noted Ars Technica’s SpaceX correspondent is a huge Musk fanboy.)

‘Entirely confident’

“We are in constant contact with SpaceX, including following Saturday’s launch, and we remain entirely confident that we’ll offer Kiwis coverage like never before with SpaceX, starting with SMS by the end of 2024, with data and voice to follow in 2025,” One NZ spokesman Matthew Flood told the Herald.

“The Direct to Cell satellites (think cell towers in space) will initially be launched on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, and then Starship when it is available. On-orbit, the satellites will immediately connect over laser backhaul to the Starlink constellation to provide global connectivity ready for our switch-on at the end of 2024.”

The secret sauce is that while the V2 Starlink satellite is too big for the Falcon 9, SpaceX has developed a work-around: the “V2 Mini”, which can be launched using the smaller rocket.

But that’s for text only.

Ars Technica says the full-size V2, which can only be launched on Starship, will be required for the voice and data services promised over 2025 and 2026.

One NZ is one of just six global partners announced for Starlink’s Direct to Cell programme so far, along with Salt in Switzerland, Kiddi in Japan, Rogers in Canada, T-Mobile in the US and Optus in Australia.

Spark, 2degrees sign on with Lynk

Starlink isn’t the only satellite-to-mobile contender.

Apple, through a partnership with comms satellite operator Globalstar (Rocket Lab’s single largest customer), can now provide iPhone 14 and 15 users the ability to send out emergency SOS messages via satellite-to-text emergency services (which recently provided its chops when used by trampers stranded in an Arthur’s Pass mobile black spot).

Amazon is planning Project Kuiper, a multibillion-dollar project that will see thousands of satellites offer telecommunications services anywhere in the world.

And US start-up Lynk, which so far only has a handful of birds in orbit (with propulsion systems from Christchurch-based Dawn Aerospace), plans to ramp up to 5000 over the next few years, using contracts with telcos to fuel its growth.

Spark and 2degrees have both thrown in their lot with Lynk.

While Lynk is so far tiny – with its current number of satellites, you might send a text and then wait hours for a reply as another satellite eventually comes over the horizon – it does have bragging rights on real-world tests.

“While this is very exciting technology, it is still very early days for mobile satellite services, but we are making good progress,” a 2degrees spokesman said.

“We have completed trials sending SMS with Lynk Sims and via standard 2degrees Sim cards in the lab and in the field. 2degrees also made some of the world’s first voice calls using the new cell-to-satellite technology [in a black spot 30 kilometres north of Whanganui in May, and Hunua in July].”

“The next step starts next month with a trial with a small group of staff and some customers over the summer in a remote region of New Zealand.”

2degrees will see how that testing goes before announcing any timeline for a commercial service.

Asked if there had been any Starlink Direct to Cell tests, OneNZ spokesman Matthew Flood said: “Not yet. Our network engineers are preparing with SpaceX ready for live testing in NZ ahead of launch next year.”

Spark: Trials this year, but cool your jets

Spark, which has been the most low-key about the new technology, continued that theme this morning.

“Our partner Lynk has already launched satellites capable of delivering direct-to-device mobile service today [Lynk launched with Bmobile in the Solomon Islands earlier this month, and Vodafone in the Cook Islands in August] and has plans to launch hundreds more within the next two years. We will be starting to trial with Lynk later this year and will be expanding it further next year,” a Spark spokeswoman said.

“Initially, the trial will enable text messaging periodically during the day, building towards a more regular service during 2024 as more commercial satellites are deployed.”

The spokeswoman added, “It’s important to note that satellite is still an emerging technology, and we are working with a number of partners in this space to trial different technologies as they evolve.”

“This is why we have urged some caution around the hype.

“It is important for customers to understand what the technology can and can’t do, and the likely timeline for it to develop. “

Beyond satellite-to-mobile calling, Spark, 2degrees and One NZ have all signed on as resellers for the business-grade version of Starlink’s dish-based broadband service. And all of their customers with an iPhone 14 or 15 can use Apple’s SOS-via-satellite service.

Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald’s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.