The new Government will need to do more than boost renewable electricity to meet its greenhouse goals, according to the Climate Change Commission.

Ministers should consider charging farmers for their emissions before 2030, shifting drivers into electric vans and utes, boosting cash for cycleways and promoting inner-city housing, the expert body advised.

These, and several other suggestions, are at odds with the political commitments of the new National-led Government.

New Climate Minister Simon Watts promised to achieve the country’s climate goals to 2025, 2030 and 2035 – though said his Government would take a different route from the plan produced under Labour.

Watts welcomed the advice in a statement, and referenced National’s pledge to streamline regulation to boost renewable electricity generation. “We will now consider the Commission’s recommendations.”

On the campaign trail, the National Party also vowed to build thousands of EV chargers, plant trees on unproductive land and continue investing in tools to cut farming emissions.

However, the coalition agreement with ACT puts the vehicle charger policy in the crosshairs, and overturns regulations making it easier to build high-density housing. NZ First secured a commitment to “reduce expenditure” on cycleways.

The commission’s advice is the first step in a process that will see the Government release a carbon-cutting plan next year.

The Government is legally required to publish the commission’s final advice no more than 10 days after receiving it. At the end of that period, the report was published on the Parliament website – in contrast to the former Labour-led Government, which launched the first set of advice in 2021 and made then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and other ministers available to answer questions from the media.

The commission said the country’s carbon footprint is decreasing, “but further Government action is needed”.

The advice acts as a roadmap, presenting one feasible path to achieve the Government’s climate target between 2026 and 2030 from an independent body.

The National-led Government does not have to follow the commission’s guidance, but must publicly present how it intends to meet the goals. It will publish the second-ever Emissions Reduction Plan by the end of next year.

The commission estimated, to meet the 2030 national goal, the Government would need to introduce additional measures capable of cutting between 14 million and 20.7m tonnes of emissions.

But that calculation is based on the current and planned policies of the former Labour Government.

With new ministers set to repeal the Clean Car Discount and cut a $1 billion fund incentivising businesses to switch out fossil-fuelled equipment for clean tech, the new Government would also need to offset the emissions that culled policies were expected to prevent.

To achieve the target, the Government could:

• Tweak the Emissions Trading Scheme. Currently, the system is incentivising lots of trees to be planted, but not encouraging individuals, households and businesses to reduce emissions, the commission said. The Government should specify how much greenhouse gas it wants forests to absorb in the coming decades, the body added.

• Introduce farm emissions pricing. The commission did not specifically suggest a start date, but said a basic system should be “implemented without delay”. In addition, farmers should receive support – including help from farm advisors – the commission said. Regulatory processes to approve greenhouse-cutting tools should be streamlined.

• Encourage new houses in urban areas. The commission promoted high-rise and mixed-use buildings, though warned development in low-lying areas at risk of sea level rise should be avoided.

• Increase investment in safe footpaths, cycleways and public transport infrastructure. Urban projects should receive “dedicated long-term funding”, the commission advised.

• Help families to swap fossil-fuelled appliances for heat pumps and electric stoves.

• Stop new connections to the gas network “except where there are no technically viable low-emissions alternatives”. This provision caused a lot of controversy when the commission first proposed it in 2021 – but the commission said home and corporate “use of fossil gas to heat water and space… needs to decrease”.

• Encourage zero-emissions commercial vehicles. That’s utes, vans, trucks and off-road vehicles.

• Help EVs to charge. As well as “rapidly” increasing the number public charging stations, the commission advised that smart chargers – which charge overnight to reduce the burden on the grid – become mandatory.

• Support green waste bins. This would reduce the amount of methane produced in landfills. In addition, the commission recommends that more landfills install gas capture-and-burn systems.

• Boost renewable electricity. The Government should remove barriers holding back new projects and invest in the grid, the commission advised.

• Make it easier for businesses to ditch fossil-fuelled systems. The commission noted that current policies made these swaps cheaper in some industries, but encouraged further incentives.

• Promote the circular economy. The commission recommends more goods be covered by “product stewardship schemes”, where the manufacturers take responsibility for the eventual waste produced. Wood waste from construction should be covered. Promoting biofuels is also critical, the body said.

• Train people who encounter refrigerant gases. Appliances, from heat pumps to fridges, that contain these powerful greenhouse gases need to be safely maintained and disposed of. The commission also suggested restricting the import of highly potent gases when less impactful options are available.

• “Directly allocate” resources and funding to iwi and Māori. This would allow them to undertake their own transition. In addition, the commission promoted “the weaving of mātauranga Māori into policy design”.

• “Urgently” introduce a strategy to look after and retrain employees and communities dependent on high-emitting industries.

• Invest in climate science and make the data public.

• Make it easier for banks and investors to offer green funding.

• Align Government ministries and departments with the eventual Emissions Reduction Plan.

The commission said the carbon goals would “require concerted and timely action”.

By scaling up the purchase of EVs “in the 2020s”, it said, the country could achieve large cuts to transport emissions from 2030. “Seemingly small delays in the near term can lead to much higher costs and/or emissions over a budget period.”

There would be benefits beyond the environment, the commission said: “Mitigating climate change will result in cleaner air, lower overall energy costs, new market opportunities, reduced risk of future inflation, and living in safer, more stable environments”.

The National-led Government has agreed that no more than 312m tonnes of net emissions can be produced between 2026 and 2030 – compared to 2019 levels, that’s a 20% cut on average.

The commission recommended the Government also cap “gross” emissions – all sources of greenhouse gas and excluding what’s sucked up by trees – at 362m tonnes, over the same timeframe.

In addition, the body noted, the country’s first methane target, a fall of 10%, must be achieved by 2030. Currently, this is required by the Zero Carbon Act, though the National Government has committed to review it.

Initially, the commission releases draft advice – which it did in April – and then asks for public feedback, before delivering the final report to the Climate Minister.

In addition, the body will also begin to monitor the Government’s progress towards its targets, with the first report due next year.