The EV boom was driven by a fuel price surge resulting from the Iran conflict – with the price of 91 rising from an average $2.61 at the start of April to a peak $3.50, while diesel prices jumped from $1.95 to $3.83, Infometrics economist Brad Olsen said.

Olsen said the buoyant June-quarter sales had to be seen against the context of unusually weak sales in 2024 and 2025.

But it was also a reflection of the fact that, “the hit to the economy from the Iran war might not have been as bad or intense as we first thought”, he said.

The fall in consumer confidence had not been as bad as feared, with a rebound in sentiment already underway, which would accelerate if a jobs-turnaround eventuates.

Olsen said anecdotal evidence pointed to elevated EV sales continuing.

“We’re hearing that households are still keen on moving to something cheaper to run than petrol or diesel,” he said.

“Although fuel prices have eased, they remain higher than comfortable for many, and the risk of further conflict and oil price volatility may support continued interest in EV and hybrid registrations,” Olsen said.

He said households were more likely to punt for a new vehicle when buying electric, because the differential with second-hand models was lower and “they want the best battery they can get”.

The rise of BYD and other keenly priced Chinese brands had nearly eliminated the price difference between equivalent electric and petrol models.

For June, Tesla leads the battery-electric market on 936 registrations, more than double its year-ago total. BYD is second on 473, ahead of Kia on 263, Jaecoo on 227 and MG on 209.

BYD announced this week that it’s opening six new dealerships across Auckland, Wairarapa, Wellington, Christchurch and Invercargill.

Olsen said the Government-subsidised scheme to boost the number of EV chargers was sufficient to maintain market momentum.

Asked if he favoured a return to the Clean Car Discount, Olsen said: “Hell no.”

The economist saw it as a subsidy for high-earning households that would buy an EV anyway.

Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald’s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.