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Common sense has prevailed.
After months of ‘will-they, won’t-they’, Racing Bulls have confirmed what Herald sources had indicated since the middle of this year – Liam Lawson will remain on the Formula One grid in 2027.
In a sense, the decision was the only move Red Bull’s sister outfit could
have made. Barring Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli – now the youngest drivers champion in the history of the sport – Lawson has been Formula One’s standout driver this year.
In 20 grands prix and six sprint races, Lawson’s 89 points won have him ninth in the drivers championship as the “best of the rest”, as the highest-placed outside the top four teams, Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren.
What’s more, those points have seen Lawson outscore Racing Bulls’ constructors championship rivals Alpine (69 points) in the battle for fifth place on his own, and an estimated $180 million payday that comes with it.
How, then, was Lawson’s future ever in any doubt?
In short, the entire equation stems from Racing Bulls’ purpose. As a junior side, the team’s primary objective is to grow drivers to one day be promoted up into Red Bull’s senior ranks.
After his two-race stint and then axing from the senior side at the start of last year, Herald sources have indicated Lawson no longer fits that tag, with a line effectively drawn through his name.
Further complicating the issue, Red Bull junior Nikola Tsolov emerged as a genuine contender to take Lawson’s seat, and was even reportedly guaranteed a place on the grid – reports Racing Bulls robustly and swiftly denied.
Furthermore, Red Bull turning to Lawson in their hour of need in deputising for an injured Isack Hadjar, was all the proof of his value to the entire organisation, not just Racing Bulls.
While Herald sources had indicated as early as July that no change would be made, it’s understood the equation became more complicated the longer it went unresolved.
It’s also understood that while Lawson never lost the belief and support from his team at Racing Bulls, he also had to compete with a rising tide within the wider Red Bull organisation – not the Formula One team – that preferred Tsolov.
So much so, former Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko nailed his colours to the mast in backing Tsolov over Lawson.
While Tsolov in theory has plenty of time in his career to wait for a chance in Formula One, Lawson would have been left with no other teams to join for 2027, were he to miss out.
With Red Bull being such a complicated company, split between its commercial arm and its motorsport operation, clarity over exactly who would make the call over which driver would get the nod was hard to come by.
The likes of Red Bull managing director Oliver Mintzlaff, primary shareholders Chalerm Yoovidhya and Mark Mateschitz, as well as Racing Bulls and Red Bull’s respective team principals Alan Permane and Laurent Mekies, have all been reported to have a say in the decision.
Of those, Permane is understood to have played the most important role in Lawson keeping his seat. As team principal, Permane was best placed to understand Lawson’s importance to Racing Bulls, both on and off track, considering how closely he works with the Kiwi on a day-to-day basis.
Once Permane himself recommitted to Racing Bulls until the end of the 2031 season, it’s understood his position of strength within Red Bull’s set-up was a huge tick in Lawson’s column to remain at the team beyond the current year.
On top of the results he’s accrued this year, Lawson has also been pivotal in helping develop the team’s car, to the point where fifth place in the constructors championship – the best result in the team’s history – grows increasingly likely by the week.
That kind of impact has given Racing Bulls a clear ability to not just develop drivers, seen through Lawson’s teammate, Arvid Lindblad, but stand as its own outfit, capable of scoring points each race, and fighting at the front of the midfield.
Lawson’s role then also became key in his retention. While fifth in the constructors this year is still to be won, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that replacing him with a rookie could see that equation drastically altered, and potentially see Racing Bulls fall into the realm of eighth or ninth.
Don’t make any mistake, Tsolov has already proven he’s more than deserving of a chance in Formula One. After first getting behind the wheel of a Racing Bulls car earlier this year, the 19-year-old has only gone from strength to strength, resulting in a successful practice session in Mexico – in Lawson’s car.
He’ll almost certainly get more opportunities, too, with Racing Bulls likely to offer him reserve duties next season.
However, for the team to put its short- to medium-term future on the line and make change for change’s sake was clearly seen as a risk not worth taking, for now at least.
Given Tsolov’s looming spectre behind them, both Lawson and Lindblad will come under pressure once 2027 begins, with every mistake to be more scrutinised than ever with the next junior in the wings.
But, as seen this year, Racing Bulls are more than ready to emerge from Red Bull’s shadow and become their own operation.
And with this pair of drivers having been instrumental in that, changing either would have been rash to say the least.
Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.
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