After briefly calling for the world to bid adieu to fossil fuels, Kiwi diplomats may have to change tack at this week’s UN climate summit.

The election and drawn-out coalition talks have cast uncertainty over New Zealand’s position on a global phase-out of coal, oil and gas – likely to be a major point of debate at the talks that begin Thursday.

Negotiators were given the green light on the environmental issue by the Labour Government in July, after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade gauged public opinion.

The ministry said it now must consult with the incoming Government before and during the summit. The National, ACT and NZ First parties want to promote, not limit, domestic oil and gas extraction and wouldn’t answer questions on their intentions for the major summit.

Since 2018, fossil fuel companies have been unable to explore for new reserves in New Zealand waters – though permits allowing onshore prospecting in Taranaki continued to be issued.

National and ACT campaigned to repeal the offshore ban, as did NZ First – which unenthusiastically backed the policy as part of its 2018 coalition with Labour.

According to energy experts, the world has already identified sufficient coal, oil and gas to provide energy while transitioning to clean fuels. To limit global warming to between 1.5C and 2C, countries must rapidly decrease fossil fuel usage before 2030, climate and energy scientists warn.

In recognition, Pacific nations and the EU will push for all countries to commit to phasing out fossil fuels during the COP28 summit, to be held in Dubai.

New Zealand diplomats – joining their counterparts travelling from 197 countries to Dubai – were set to back those efforts. They have also attended formal and informal “pre-COP” meetings throughout the year. The negotiating parametres allowing officials to “advocate for the global phase-out of fossil fuels” has been in force for a number of those discussions.

Asked twice if the document was still valid, the ministry refused to answer.

In a statement, the ministry said since the election it has consulted on “significant decisions or policy approaches” with the parties in coalition talks.

“Following the formation of the new Government, officials will engage with them to ascertain New Zealand’s approach on climate change, including with regard to our settings in international climate for such as COP.”

In the midst of coalition talks, the National Party said it had not yet formed a Government. “Until that is completed and ministerial responsibilities have been allocated to portfolios, we are not in a position to comment.”

ACT and NZ First did not respond to Stuff’s questions last week.

An advocate for quickly phasing out fossil fuels thought Kiwi negotiators would now keep “a much lower profile” at this week’s summit.

David Tong, of Oil Change International, said a larger change in direction would “send our negotiating team into disarray” while achieving very little.

“Fundamentally changing the country’s negotiating position like this in the six days or less between a new government being formed and the UN climate talks starting would be an incredibly rushed, irresponsible process.”

New Zealand would face diplomatic consequences if it lobbied or voted against proposals to phase out fossil fuels, he warned.

“Our Pacific neighbours would be furious… Trying to prolong fossil fuel production and use would be betraying our neighbours,” he said.

“[It] would seriously compromise our relationships with European nations – and increase the chances that the EU could challenge a decision to reopen offshore oil as a breach of our free trade agreement with Europe.”

Tong said fossil fuel demand is projected to decline in the coming years. “Compromising our diplomatic relationships with key partners to appease a sunset industry is a dead end.”