Voters may not know the outcome of all four criminal cases when they cast their ballots in November.

The closer Donald Trump gets to the 2024 presidential election, the longer he will be spending
in courtrooms and away from the campaign trail as he faces 91 charges in four separate criminal cases.

An unprecedented and busy legal calendar will be a growing drain on Trump’s time as well as financial resources — his campaign committees spent more than US$52 million ($85 million) on legal fees in 2023 — as litigation ramps up in the coming months.

Nothing in the US constitution prohibits convicted felons from serving as president. However, some voters say their decision in the presidential election will be influenced by whether Trump has been convicted of serious crimes. Trump’s lawyers have argued that trials will unfairly taint the vote, while others say that Americans deserve to know Trump’s fate before they cast their ballots.

But it is increasingly unlikely that all four criminal cases will reach juries by election day in November — an outcome that will work in Trump’s favour. Paul Schiff Berman, law professor at George Washington University, said that while Trump was not “scoring wins in court” — the few rulings handed down so far have been against him — he is “successfully…using the court system and the appeal process to delay as long as possible”.

Here is a look at how Trump’s trial calendar is shaping up.

‘Hush money’ case

The Manhattan district attorney’s historic first criminal indictment of Trump will also be the first to trial. The indictment was handed down in April 2023 over the former president’s alleged attempts to buy the silence of a porn star, Stormy Daniels, who claimed to have had an affair with him in the run-up to the 2016 election. Jury selection is set to begin right in the middle of the Republican primary season, on March 25.

If convicted on the 34 charges of falsifying business records, Trump could be handed a prison sentence of up to four years. Even if he returns to the White House he would not be able to pardon himself, since the case is in a state court.

Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, who brought the charge, may have to rely on some less-than-ideal witnesses at the trial, which is expected to last approximately six weeks. These include Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, who served prison time for admitting to lying under oath, and former Trump Organization executive Allen Weisselberg, who went to jail for fraud.

Classified documents case

After the “hush money” case, the next in line for trial is likely to be the first-ever federal indictment against a former president, which accuses Trump of mishandling sensitive government documents.

Department of Justice special counsel Jack Smith alleged Trump tried to keep the material from authorities, including storing boxes in a shower on his Mar-a-Lago estate.

Trial was originally set to begin in a Florida federal court on May 20, but Aileen Cannon, the judge presiding over the case, has suggested that will be pushed back.

Trump’s lawyers have recommended a new start date of August 12, while reiterating their position that “a fair trial cannot be held until after the 2024 presidential election is concluded”. Smith requested the trial start on July 8.

The DoJ has a general policy against launching politically sensitive prosecutions within 60 days of an election. But a prosecutor told Cannon on Friday that a trial in that timeframe would not run afoul of that unwritten rule since charges had already been filed.

If Trump is convicted, the maximum prison term for each of his 40 criminal counts ranges from five to 20 years. Since the case is federal, some have speculated that Trump could attempt to pardon himself if he is elected president. At the very least he could attempt to influence the case via his appointees to the DoJ.

Federal election interference case

What could have been the first criminal case to go to trial against Trump — and the one widely considered to be the most serious threat to his standing with voters — is now facing significant delays.

The second indictment obtained by Jack Smith last year, brought in a federal court in Washington DC, accuses Trump of seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election. The four criminal counts include conspiracy to defraud the US, obstruct an official proceeding and threaten individual rights.

The trial, which was originally set to begin on March 4, will be delayed while the US Supreme Court considers whether Trump is entitled to presidential immunity for the acts committed while he was in office. The bench has scheduled oral arguments for the week starting April 22 and a decision is expected by the end of its term, which typically falls at the end of June.

Some analysts argue that if the court does not side with Trump and with no further delay, he may face a verdict shortly before the general election in November. But many believe this is unlikely. A trial could last at least eight weeks, analysts said.

Georgia election case

Perhaps the most complex case against Trump, Fulton county district attorney Fani Willis’s sprawling indictment against the ex-president and others has become bogged down in wrangling over whether Willis should be disqualified from the case.

Underpinned by the state of Georgia’s far-reaching racketeering statute, which is typically used in mob prosecutions, the charges outlined a broad conspiracy to overturn the 2020 polls involving Trump and 18 others (four have already pleaded guilty). Georgia’s racketeering statute carries penalties of up to 20 years in jail as well as a fine, to be added on to penalties stemming from other misconduct.

State prosecutors had requested the trial begin for the remaining defendants on August 5. But proceedings are now expected to face delays after some defendants have sought to disqualify Willis based on a romantic relationship she had with an outside attorney working on the case.

If Willis is disqualified, state officials would have the power to replace her. Any external appointment could take time and result in further delays to the trial or a shift in strategy altogether.

Like the New York “hush money” case, a conviction against Trump in Georgia state court could not be absolved through a presidential pardon.

Written by: Stefania Palma in Washington and Joe Miller in New York

© Financial Times