Trump gets his best ratings for handling immigration at the US-Mexico border (45% approval and 54% disapproval). His ratings for handling immigration overall are worse at 40% approving and 59% disapproving, hardly changed from 40% positive versus 58% negative in February, though that marked the worst for his second term.

The president’s weak approval ratings put the Republicans’ slender House majority in grave danger and now threaten their Senate majority as well. Among registered voters, Democrats hold a five-point advantage on the question of which party people favour in House elections. That is up from a two-point edge in February and October.

The Democrats’ advantage grows to nine points among those who are absolutely certain to vote. Democrats also are far more likely than Republicans to say voting this year is more important than previous midterms (73% v 52%), a shift from 2022 when the parties were roughly even on this (72% among Republicans v 68% of Democrats).

The gap in enthusiasm is partly explained by a split in Trump’s base. Those Republicans who identify as Maga are more likely (77%) to say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 59% of the smaller group of non-Maga Republicans. Meanwhile, 79% of all self-identified Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote.

There is also a division over how members of the two parties see the significance of the November elections. About 6 in 10 Democrats say the midterm elections are “much more important” compared to past midterm elections, while 35% of Republicans see the same significance. Among those who identify as Maga Republicans, 41% say the upcoming balloting is much more important than past elections, with 20% of non-Maga Republicans agreeing.

These findings are not precise indicators of how the elections will turn out, and a variety of factors could add uncertainty to the political year. One is the ongoing redistricting wars and which party, if either, ultimately benefits from the scramble to redraw congressional boundaries. The Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday (Thursday NZT) that race cannot be a factor in drawing these lines, a blow to the Voting Rights Act and a spur for some Republican-run states to redraw districts to eliminate minority representatives and give the party a leg up.

Democrats registered some gains in the public’s perception of which party is more trusted to handle some major issues – one more indicator of the Republicans’ changing fortunes. The most significant gain for Democrats came on the economy. The new poll finds the public evenly split, with 34% saying they trust Republicans, 33% saying they trust Democrats and the rest saying they trust neither or both equally. When this was asked ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans had a double-digit advantage on the economy.

The other issue where Democrats have gained in trust is inflation. The new poll finds the public evenly split, but in 2022, when President Joe Biden was in office and dealing with rising prices, Republicans had a double-digit advantage. The Republican advantage on immigration has shrunk to single digits, five points in the latest poll.

But Republicans maintain a large advantage on trust to handle crime, while Democrats are more trusted to handle healthcare, education and the cost of living in the US (slightly better for Democrats than inflation).

Large numbers of Americans say they trust “neither” political party to handle major issues, including 23% who say this about immigration, 27% on the economy, 28% on crime and 33% on inflation. A slight majority (51%) trusts neither party to handle artificial intelligence.

Asked who they support for Congress, registered voters who lack a preferred party on most issues in the poll support Democrats over Republicans by 49% to 32%, though just about half say they are certain to vote.

One warning sign for Democrats is the perception that the party is too liberal. The poll finds that 53% of Americans hold that opinion about the party. That’s similar to a poll last year but up from 2013, when 46% said the party was too liberal. Nearly half of Americans say the Republican Party is too conservative. That is higher by six points than in 2013.

Trump is seen as too conservative by 46% of Americans, up marginally from just before the 2024 election when he defeated Kamala Harris.

Another potential problem for Republicans is the lack of public support for specific presidential actions, some taken by executive action and now subject to judicial review.

The president called for an end to birthright citizenship, but Americans oppose this effort by nearly 2-1 (65% v 33%). The Supreme Court recently heard oral arguments in this case and will issue a ruling before its term ends.

An even bigger percentage (78%) oppose reductions in federal funding for medical research, which has hit many major universities especially hard. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was on Capitol Hill last week defending the administration’s proposal to raise the defence budget from $1 trillion to $1.5tn (NZ$2.5tn). Nearly 2 in 3 Americans (65%) say they oppose the increase. Almost 6 in 10 (59%) oppose the administration’s effort to end temporary legal status for migrants from conflict-ridden countries.

Congressional Republicans have offered little opposition to the president’s initiatives and the poll finds that he retains a strong hold on rank-and-file members of the party, with 65% saying the party should follow his lead versus 34% who say they want the party led in a different direction. That represents a small decline since February but remains higher than in 2021 or 2022, before Trump mounted the comeback that put him back in the White House in 2024.

A growing share of Americans question Trump’s mental acuity for the position. Nearly 6 in 10 (59%) say he does not have the mental sharpness, and a majority (55%) say he is not in good enough physical health to serve effectively. Both are slightly more negative than they were in the February survey and are significantly more negative than last September.

On other attributes, 71% say he is not honest and trustworthy, nearly 67% say he does not carefully consider important decisions and a 54% majority say he is not a strong leader.

Top officials in the administration draw consistently low marks from Americans, with none of five asked about in net positive territory. The disapproval ratings are as follows: Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jnr, net negative 19 percentage points; FBI Director Kash Patel, net negative 19 points; Hegseth, net negative 17 points; Vice President JD Vance, net negative 13 points; Secretary of State Marco Rubio, net negative seven points.

Embattled Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell came out best in these rankings, with a net positive rating of seven points.