Regardless of the result at Go Media Stadium, the contest will provide the Warriors with the clearest indication yet of where they stand heading into the finals – and exactly what will be required if they are to challenge for the premiership in five weeks’ time.
The Panthers will be eager to reinforce why they sit atop the NRL ladder, while the Warriors have the opportunity to prove they are genuine premiership contenders.
Warriors coach Andrew Webster said his side took valuable lessons from their narrow defeat earlier in the season.
“I thought both teams looked really good in big periods of that game.
“There were some concentration moments where we had tries pulled back that we should have scored. It’s about finishing the job.
“If we’ve got them where we want them, don’t let up because we know they’re going to keep throwing punches. We’ve got to keep throwing our own and make sure we’re concentrated for the full 80 minutes.”
Webster fully understands the challenge that awaits his team, especially with an eye on the finals.
“It’d be better to hit your straps this time of year than not,” he said. “The outcome is not written yet.
“Whatever that comes, we’re certainly going to look at it with optimism, either if we win, lose, draw. It’d be better to have some momentum going into the playoffs and there’s two points up for grabs; that’s always the important thing.
“We’re here to win, we’re here to practise winning and that’s what the game’s about. Looking forward to the challenge against a really good team, a team that’s been the benchmark for a long time now and just see where we’re at.”
Warriors v Panthers line-ups
Luke Metcalf will make his first appearance in 124 days after being called in to start at halfback, replacing the injured Te Maire Martin.
Martin sustained a calf injury at training which has ruled him out indefinitely.
This will be Metcalf’s third appearance of the season, having last played on April 5 and his first NRL game since announcing his departure at the end of the season.
Meanwhile, Webster has opted to retain Leka Halasima at centre and Adam Pompey on the extended bench.
Webster said the decision to start Halasima at centre was about giving him game time after a tricky campaign.
“With Jacob [Laban] doing so well in the back row, Leka wasn’t really getting any time, and I felt like a player like Leka needed to get to start and to be out there.
“Adam obviously misses out but he’s achieved so much and so reliable for our club. So that’s why we went that way and now that’s why we kept the same team as a result of that and hopefully we can build some momentum.”
On the bench, Morgan Gannon is in line for his second NRL appearance, while Taine Tuaupiki is among the reserves. Demitric Vaimauga remains sidelined with a rib complaint that caused him to be a late withdrawal last week against the Titans.
Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 3. Ali Lleiataua, 4. Leka Halasima, 5. Alofiana Khaln-Pereira, 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita, 18. Luke Metcalf, 8. James Fisher-Harris, 9. Wayde Egan, 10. Mitch Barnett, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Jacob Laban, 13. Erin Clark.
Interchange (from): 14. Sam Healey, 15. Tanner Stowers-Smith, 16. Morgan Gannon, 17. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava, 20. Taine Tuaupiki, 21. Riley Price, 23. Adam Pompey.
For the Panthers, they have made two changes, with Blaize Talagi coming in at five-eighth, while Kiwis centre Casey McLean has been ruled out with a hand injury, and he has been replaced by Izack Tago.
Star fullback Dylan Edwards remains sidelined with a shoulder injury.
Panthers: 1. Jaxen Edgar, 2. Thomas Jenkins, 3. Paul Alamoti, 4. Izack Tago, 5. Brian To’o, 19. Blaize Talagi, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Moses Leota, 9. Freddy Lussick, 10. Lindsay Smith, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Liam Martin, 13. Isaah Yeo.
Interchange (from): 14. Billy Scott, 15. Scott Sorensen, 16. Liam Henry, 17. Billy Phillips, 18. Jack Cole, 20. Jesse McLean, 21. Luron Patea
Where will the match be won?
This will be a battle between the NRL’s two best defensive sides. Penrith have conceded a competition-low 14.3 points per game this season, with the Warriors close behind at 16.4.
If the Warriors are to cause an upset, making a fast start could prove crucial. The Panthers have conceded a try inside the opening five minutes in each of their past three matches, presenting an opportunity for the home side to seize early momentum.
When the teams met in May, the Warriors created enough chances to win but failed to convert them, with much of that owed to the defensive work of fullback Dylan Edwards, who will be absent this time.
Against the Titans last week, the Warriors returned to a more direct, back-to-basics style of football. Producing a similar performance will give them every chance against the Panthers.
The blueprint is simple: build through the middle with James Fisher-Harris and Erin Clark, win the ruck, and allow Wayde Egan to exploit quick play-the-balls from dummy-half.
For Penrith, the priority will be controlling field position through Nathan Cleary’s kicking game while relying on experienced campaigners such as Liam Martin and Moses Leota to assert themselves in the key moments.
Warriors v Panthers history and recent matches
Look away, Warriors fans, this doesn’t make for pretty reading, with the Panthers proving to be something of a bogey team over the years.
In 55 meetings, the Panthers have won 35 and the Warriors 19, with one draw in 2009. The record at Mt Smart is slightly better, with the Panthers holding a 12-10 edge.
However, the Warriors have scored more points in those matches, 523 to 497.
But that is where the positives end. Of all NRL teams, the Panthers have scored the most points against the Warriors, with 1429.
The Warriors have faced the Panthers more than any other side in the finals and have lost all four matches.
The Panthers have won 11 of their past 12 meetings.
Three memorable matches
The two sides have played out many intriguing battles over the years – here are three that spring to mind.
Warriors 22-20 Panthers, May 19, 2024
A late try to Taine Tuaupiki helped an injury-ravaged Warriors side claim an upset win over the Penrith Panthers at Magic Round.
The Panthers were without star halfback Nathan Cleary, but the Warriors were in the midst of a severe injury crisis as they were without Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Shaun Johnson, while losing Wayde Egan during the contest.
After trailing, the Warriors fought back to take the lead in the final 10 minutes with Tuaupiki scoring and converting his own try from the sideline.
Dylan Edwards had a long-range penalty goal to try to send the match to golden point, but he missed.
This match also represents the last time the Warriors beat the Panthers.
Warriors 32-32 Panthers, August 1, 2009
In one of the most dramatic matches ever, the Warriors blew a 26-point lead to draw with the Panthers.
Four tries to centre Joel Moon gave the Warriors a 32-6 lead midway through the second half before things unravelled.
The Warriors looked like they would hold on for a narrow win, but a high tackle handed the Panthers a penalty from right in front to send the game to golden point.
Neither side could find a winner in the extra 10 minutes, with Lance Hohaia having the best effort, which hit the top of the crossbar and bounced the wrong way.
Surprisingly, that was the Warriors’ second draw of the season, having played out a 14-14 thriller against the Storm in what was the first of many memorable Anzac Day clashes.
Warriors 6-62 Panthers, May 18, 2013
The Warriors were handed their biggest defeat at the time in a humiliating display, with captain Simon Mannering labelling their defence as “non-existent”.
The Panthers, who were coached by Ivan Cleary, ran in 10 tries, with six of them coming from players previously contracted to the Warriors, with Isaac John claiming a hat-trick, Lewis Brown a brace and Matt Robinson, a member of their Under-20s side, also scoring.
Form guide (past five matches)
The Warriors head into the contest off the back of their most impressive performance of the season against the Titans.
Before that though, they were very hit and miss and were soundly beaten by the Bulldogs in their previous outing. Overall, they are 3-2 in their last five.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have won four of their past five outings, with their lone defeat coming at the hands of the Broncos, which surprisingly is their only win since round eight.
The Panthers’ wins came against the Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Eels and Raiders.
Warriors v Panthers TAB odds
Warriors $2.35 Panthers $1.60
Warriors v Panthers – how to follow the action
You can watch the game on Sky Sport 1 and it will be livestreamed on Sky Sport Now. Coverage starts at 7pm.
You can also find live updates at nzherald.co.nz.
Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.
