Tova O’Brien is Stuff’s Chief Political Correspondent and host of the weekly political podcast, Tova. She looks at some of the big political issues to watch for the Prime Minister – and the country – in 2024.

ANALYSIS: The new year could go one of two ways: a continuation of the heightened, febrile – often divisive – political environment that’s been a hallmark of 2023 or a long-overdue simmering and settling into the business of just “getting things done” as Christopher Luxon often puts it.

There’s a potential third option too: all of the above.

How much crossover there will be will come down, in large part, to the prime minister and his ability to corral the coalition and flex to the will of the public.

On the economy for example, Luxon and National have the cred to steward the country out of the cost of living crisis – or at least dampen the material impact it’s having on so many Kiwi households.

What we’ve seen so far on Māori issues, however, the mounting criticism that the government’s taking a tone-deaf approach, could threaten to overshadow gains made in other areas.

Does Luxon want to be haggling over why taxpayers are footing his te reo lessons and not those of teachers and public servants? Or over why Kāinga Ora can be branded with its te reo name first while all other government departments must abide the ‘English first’ decree, when he’d much rather be proudly proclaiming his tax cuts have finally delivered Kiwis a “backpocket boost” or that inflation is tracking south?

There is time for Luxon to accept the wero from Māori to listen and understand why they feel some of his government’s policies are harmful, and to hear any proposed solutions.

The nationwide hui called by the Kiingitanga at Turangawaewae Marae in January is one such opportunity, so too Rātana and Waitangi, but Luxon would be advised to start laying the groundwork now lest they become pinch points at which tensions, already bubbling, boil over.

The government’s approach to climate change is another big one to watch in 2024.

National says it’s committed to reaching the Net Zero target by 2050 but is delaying the date by which farmers have to start paying for agricultural emissions by another five years, it’s reinstating offshore oil and gas exploration, building more roads and dipping into the climate fund to help pay for tax cuts.

Instead, its plan is to super-charge renewable energy and unlock new technology to reduce agricultural emissions.

Sounds great, even easy, one wonders why it’s not solved our problems to date. Let’s watch this space.

Next year will also likely catapult Luxon into unsteady global waters.

The prime minister and the government’s league of diplomats will be hustling to secure big ticket international photo ops – the United States, China, India all on the wish list.

But grinning and gripping alongside presidents and prime ministers also comes with pressure to take a strong line on some of the world’s biggest crises and conflicts – an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, human rights abuses in China.

And on Luxon’s dogged determination to achieve a free trade deal with India, how far is he willing to bend on concessions for dairy and immigration?

Sitting above those big issues to watch in 2024 – the economy, Māori relations, international relations and climate – are the dynamics of the coalition government.

Its strength and stability will be tested.

The path to tax cuts has already been stymied by NZ First’s refusal to entertain a foreign buyers’ tax.

The government’s relationship with Māori has been strained predominantly by minor party policy concessions like ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill and NZ First’s review of references to the Treaty in legislation.

Our foreign policy is being spearheaded by Foreign Minister Winston Peters who has already signalled plans to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the United States.

While there are similarities between the coalition parties’ climate policies there are also conflicts – see Shane Jones’ bombastic attack in parliament on the “hysteria surrounding climate change” which Luxon says he would have worded differently.

Then there are the personalities in the mix.

Luxon has so far been reluctant to call out his deputy prime minister when Peters waged war on the media or misrepresented history in the House regarding Moriori – among other things.

And NZ First’s ascension in the polls is starting to mirror ACT’s decline. How will David Seymour respond to cauterise his vote seep?

For the prime minister, 2024 will be a delicate balancing act of policy, politics and personalities.

For the country, we’ll just be hoping he gets it right.