“A really good example is a company called Helaina, but there’s a bunch of them who are making bioidentical-to-human lactoferrin,” Clark-Reynolds said.

“Now that sounds really science-y, but lactoferrin is the iron component in milk,” the Future Centre managing director added.

“They have to add the iron to cow’s milk to get it to the same levels, from being cow milk, which is easier for babies to absorb.

“Lactoferrin has always been quite an expensive component that dairy companies have made from cow’s milk – but it’s now at a point where the big formula companies are buying ‘vat-grown’ (precision-fermented) lactoferrin because it’s got to the point where it’s cheaper to make,” Clark-Reynolds said.

“I think that’s more of a threat than [precision-fermented] meat.”

Vat-grown steak is on the way.

In June last year, Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) introduced a new standard for “cell-cultured foods” and permitted the first lab-grown meat to be sold: “cell-cultured quail” made by Sydney-based start-up Vow Group.

The FSANZ decision needed the approval of ministers on both sides of the Tasman.

It was duly greenlit by Biosecurity and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard, his office confirms, even if the development was not shouted from the rooftops, and his opposite number in Canberra.

Breaking out of the commodity cycle

Things are moving slowly. Vow’s handful of retail partners and restaurants doesn’t include any in New Zealand. And like other makers of vat-grown meat, it’s hard to say what its base product tastes like. Various journalists have given it the thumbs up, but (like lab-grown chicken) it’s always presented in highly processed form like whipped pâté (A$17.99 for a 180g jar) or croquettes (A$59.99 for 40).

But if and when it picks up steam, could lab-grown meat help shake New Zealand out of its commodity focus in primary products, if a segment of the market is willing to pay more for the real thing?

“Lots of companies have already broken out of the commodity cycle,” Clark-Reynolds said.

READ MORE: Cultivated meat, transport perks, electric boats: Inside three rising Kiwi start-ups

“I sit on the board of Atkins Ranch, which is not in the commodity cycle.”

Atkins’ 100% grass-fed lamb comes from regenerative farms.

“You can also look at Taupo Beef or Silver Fern Farms’ top-end product as companies that don’t try to fight it out in the commodity market,” Clark-Reynolds said.

“I think we have to think that over time, meat is going to be a treat that people are willing to pay extra for.

“We’re already seeing that Americans are willing to pay more for regen-certified meat and they’ll pay extra for a2 milk.”

(Clark-Reynolds spoke to the Herald before the baby formula recall that sent its shares spiralling.)

She adds, “Fonterra has got a good innovation group. They are investing in plant-based milks. They’re investing in the precision fermentation markets.”

Big trends affecting agritech

Clark-Reynolds is also assessing trends, including the decline in population in China and almost everywhere outside Africa, a boom worldwide in demand for fancy cheeses and governments worldwide – including ours – cutting funding for “blue-sky” research in favour of more commercially-focused efforts.

Here, the new Advanced Technology Institute – set to be established later this year with $70 million saved from defunding Callaghan Innovation – is in the process of choosing between one of five artificial intelligence (AI) projects (a sovereign AI, a creative AI, an autonomous intelligence, a physical AI for real-world systems or a “BioAI platform” for agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry). Only one will be funded.

“I’d like to see them all funded,” Clark-Reynolds said.

“But my bigger concern for the future of our bio economy is whether we’re investing enough in primary science.

“There’s so much research done around the world that government needs to invest in because the private sector will only pick this stuff up when it’s commercialisable; it won’t invest in the really cutting-edge primary science.

“And this is where I think places like CSIRO [Australia’s main science and innovation agency] are going to be ahead of us. I’m afraid that Aussie farmers will have an advantage over us.”

So how does a futurist predict what’s ahead?

“I use a bunch of tools – some of them math, some of them straight out of anthropology,” Clark-Renyolds said.

“I’m looking for patterns and using those patterns to help companies, government, NGOs, to think about how the future might turn out.

“I’m not trying to say that there’ll be one future. I always say, the present is messy and contradictory, and the future will be too. So there’ll be multiple futures, and we need to help organisations become resilient, however the future turns out.”

Clark-Reynolds will be one of the speakers at Icehouse’s Ignite 26 Growth Summit this Wednesday at the Viaduct Events Centre.

The line-up also features Halter founder Craig Piggott, Pic’s Peanut Butter founder Pic Picot and his stepdaughter (and Pic’s chief executive) Aimee McCammon and Puro New Zealand founders Tim Aldridge and Sank Macfarlane, among others.

A panel discussion on the election – “What does the next term mean for your business?” – will feature NZIER principal economist Christina Leung, journalist Patrick Gower, former Finance Minister and Icehouse director Steven Joyce (whose other roles include chairman of Herald publisher NZME) and Wellington man Bernard Hickey.

Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald’s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.