An Opposition leader will resign. After the election, each leader kept their positions – despite the change of Government. As the new order settles in, someone – be that Chris Hipkins, Marama Davidson or James Shaw – will resign.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will hit the sky, leading diplomatic and trade delegations to India, the US, and Pacific islands.

The Government will re-engage with the World Health Organisation’s regulation updates, which New Zealand had been closely aligned with. For reasons unexplained, Luxon agreed to “reserve against” these soon-to-be-refreshed public health protocols in NZ First’s coalition agreement. Such reservations will be short-lived, given outright rejection of these updates would attract international and local ridicule.

Leaning into life on the Opposition benches, Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick will become increasingly outspoken in the House. The Speaker will kick out Auckland Central’s MP at least once in 2024.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis will make another so-called “gaffe” in the House, following on from previous hits such as “how big is his hole” and declaring the “size of the sausage” matters.

Following the January 20 hui with the Kīngitanga, sizeable protests will arrive at Parliament and at Waitangi as Parliament resumes and as Christopher Luxon heads north for his first Waitangi Day as prime minister.

The Government will deliver tax cuts in July, but the scale of those cuts will not be as large as was promised at the election. National will point to its coalition deal with NZ First, kyboshing the foreign buyers’ tax, and Labour’s so-called “fiscal cliffs” for the more modest tax relief.

House price growth will exceed the 5.3% forecast by the Treasury in December, growing by at least 7.5% in the year to June 2024.

Local Government Minister Simeon Brown will appoint commissioners to take over the management of a city or regional council, which will fall into disarray due to failing infrastructure and economic mismanagement.