“If the deal goes through, it will fundamentally reshape Hollywood at a precarious time for the entertainment business,” wrote CNN’s Brian Stelter.
“It would give Netflix control of some of the industry’s most valuable intellectual property, including Batman, Harry Potter and Game of Thrones, and would give a company that historically had very little interest in movie theatres oversight of the studio that put more butts in seats than any other this year.”
A recent Bank of America analyst report said: “If Netflix acquires Warner Bros, the streaming wars are effectively over. Netflix would become the undisputed global powerhouse of Hollywood beyond even its currently lofty position.”
The deal will reverberate across oceans – and even to our own Sky, potentially reshaping how and where Kiwis might see their favourite shows.
Right now, Sky TV screens HBO Max content on its own Neon streaming platform.
Only last night, in an interview with Newstalk ZB’s Heather du Plessis-Allan to mark her chief executive of the year title, Moloney was talking up season two of HBO Max medical drama The Pitt next month.
It’s one of HBO Max’s hottest properties, alongside other contemporary and legacy shows such as The White Lotus, Game of Thrones, The Sopranos, Succession and The Last of Us.
There have been rumours recently that Sky might be parting ways with HBO Max content, anyway, next year.
HBO Max operates as a separate platform in other markets – much like Amazon Prime and Disney+ – although there have been no firm plans or announcements that it’s planning to launch here.
It is understood Sky’s existing deal with HBO Max expires mid-2026.
“Warner Brothers Discovery is a really important partner and, when we’ve got something to talk about, [we will],” Moloney told Media Insider last month.
Asked at that time whether she wanted to retain HBO Max content, she said: “It’s all about the data and what the team think makes sense, and [it’s] up to them in terms of what they want to do.”
She added: “There are heaps and heaps of entertainment studios out there.”
Asked whether she knew of any plans to launch HBO Max in New Zealand, Moloney said: “That’s definitely a question for them. We’re not going to speak on their behalf.”
A Warner Bros spokeswoman said at the time that the company had no comment.
It’s highly feasible that TVNZ might also be in the market, especially with its own fledgling subscription plans and new digital technology.
TVNZ has already secured the rights to next year’s Football World Cup, and plans to charge viewers for an all-tournament pass (some games will screen free-to-air).
But the pending Netflix deal reshapes the landscape entirely. Would we see all of the HBO Max content shift across to Netflix, or would it fast-track any plans to establish HBO Max as a separate platform in New Zealand, creating a pincer-like movement against other local and international competitors?
Sky TV on a high
Sky TV is performing strongly, with its share price at five-year highs, driven by a 30c-per-share dividend for shareholders, and a dealmaking year. It has acquired Three and Three Now – ironically from Warner Bros Discovery – and it is bedding in those free-to-air digital and linear platforms, with the obvious goal of boosted advertising revenue in coming years.
Sky also finishes the year with its true Golden Goose – All Blacks, Super Rugby and domestic rugby rights – locked away. It has also won back Black Caps cricket rights from TVNZ, after next summer.
“Sports remains the largest revenue and earnings contributor for SKT,” wrote Forsyth Barr analyst Ben Crozier last week.
“Competition for sports streaming in New Zealand is relatively low, with SKT holding rights for the vast majority of marquee sports.
“Over the last five years, it has maintained a stable sports-subscriber base and delivered strong like-for-like price increases to offset the migration from satellite to [Sky Sport Now].
“While SKT has lost the Fifa World Cup rights, its business model is not suited to extract the most value from irregular events. Prioritising rights for season-long sports is likely the path to maximise profitability.”
Crozier suggested Sky “has a path to grow its dividend from NZ30cps [cents per share] in FY26 to NZ40cps over the next few years”.
The Netflix-Warner Bros Discovery deal announced overnight illustrates the rapidly transforming global media landscape – and will give analysts such as Crozier and media firms plenty to think about.
Sky TV executives might well be wary of a supercharged entertainment offering on Netflix and the potential impact on its own entertainment subscription revenue forecasts.
It’s just a little pebble under the beach towel that Moloney, her new chief financial officer, David Mackrell, and other executives probably did not need this summer.
Editor-at-Large Shayne Currie is one of New Zealand’s most experienced senior journalists and media leaders. He has held executive and senior editorial roles at NZME including Managing Editor, NZ Herald Editor and Herald on Sunday Editor and has a small shareholding in NZME.
