All Blacks v Wales: Where the test will be won – and why it won’t sell out

“I was quite blown away in Edinburgh. It was surreal to see how many Germans jumped on the plane over to watch me play,” Segner said.

“On Friday I went out for coffee with my family and the amount of Germans that came up to me, asked for photos and said they were big fans and how I was putting German rugby on the map by playing rugby for the All Blacks, it’s pretty special for me to witness that. I definitely hear and feel their support and I’m thankful for it.”

Segner’s parents watched him emerge from the bench against Scotland last week and then returned to Cardiff on Thursday to attend the All Blacks captain’s run and match this weekend.

“Last week when we were signing the anthem I was able to spot them in the crowd. As a player that gives you an extra boost of motivation, seeing your family and the people that matter most to you in the stands. It will be no different this week, being able to start in front of them, for them, is extremely special to me.”

A maiden test start at blindside flanker could be the first of many for Segner. His versatility to cover all three back row positions, his value as a lineout option and notable influence at the defensive breakdown increasingly enhances his appeal.

He would have featured more for the All Blacks by now, too, but for the rare autoimmune reaction that forced him home from South Africa prior to the first test.

The All Blacks certainly can’t be accused of dismissing Wales.

Dave Rennie named a stronger side than many expected with seven starters backing up from last week’s dominant win at Murrayfield.

At home in Cardiff this year Wales edged Japan 28-21 last weekend, Fiji 39-24 in July, Italy 31-17 in March and lost to Scotland 26-23 in February.

In a nod to the expectations on the All Blacks, though, the Springboks second string side cruised to a 43-0 win in South Africa.

Rennie shares an affinity with Welsh coaches Steve Tandy, Danny Wilson and Peter Murchie, the latter he worked alongside in Japan.

“I know them well, very good coaches,” Rennie said. “Pete did a phenomenal job defensively with us at Kobe. It’s going to take time to turn things around but I can see the impact they’re having hence why we’ve chosen a strong side.”

Loose forward Jac Morgan, wing Louis Rees-Zammit and halfback Tomos Williams are talented figures but the state of the Welsh game is reflected in ticket sales, with this test not going close to selling out, despite offering £20 tickets for students.

Principality Stadium holds 74,000. There was once a time the All Blacks would comfortably fill it to the brim.

Not now, though. The cost of living, the sharp decline of the national team, widespread frustrations with the way the Welsh game is run and plans to cut a domestic team have combined to alienate locals, particularly the casual supporters.

For all the respect the All Blacks are offering Wales, anything other than a 20–30 point win would be a major surprise.

Wales’ last win over a top eight nation was the Wallabies at the 2023 World Cup. Their only victories in last 32 tests have come against Italy, Fiji, Japan and Georgia.

Result aside, from a performance perspective the All Blacks must swiftly improve their discipline after conceding two yellow cards last week.

As tougher tests loom the ongoing shifts at the set piece, maul defence and under the high ball are also expected.

Turns out you can teach an old dog new tricks.

At this point in his career Beauden Barrett probably thought he would never lead the All Blacks in a test.

He’s done it before, against the Barbarians at Twickenham, but captaining the All Blacks against Wales, in his 149th test, is an unexpected achievement.

“Doing it in a test match, in a stadium like this in Wales, it’s a great opportunity for me and one I’m very proud of,” Barrett said.

Barrett celebrated his 100th test at the same venue with two of his eight test tries against Wales, as the All Blacks amassed a 54-16 win.

Five years on, assuming the captaincy signals how far he has come since the start of the season when he couldn’t break into the All Blacks match day squad, let alone the starting team.

“I’m loving it. I’m grateful for any opportunity. This will be my fourth game in a row. I’m pinching myself every time. Once you’re playing a different role in the environment it’s a tough team to break into but I don’t want to let go of it.”

Captaining any team from fullback is unusual – it will require Barrett to regularly run in from the backfield to speak with the referee – but he’s sure to treasure the occasion.

With four bonus point wins each leading into this weekend, the battle between the All Blacks and Springboks to top the southern hemisphere Nations Championship pool is too close to call.

The Boks have the vastly tougher draw. France in Paris followed by Ireland in Dublin presents a difficult road to staying unbeaten while attempting to collect maximum points.

The All Blacks could well notch a half century against Wales to dramatically reduce their inferior points differential (67) before confronting England at Twickenham. But, for now at least, that’s not front of mind.

“It’s a test match and our focus is this week,” Rennie said. “We’ll probably look at things going into the last game. It might be a little bit clearer around what we need to do.

“South Africa are about 70 points clear so if we end up on the same points it’s unlikely we’d catch them. There’s a real danger to go out and try and score x amount of points. You end up overplaying and getting embarrassed.

“We’ve got a clear plan around how we want to play and whatever happens, happens.”

Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.

Listen to Elliott Smith’s live commentary on Newstalk ZB Sport and iHeartRadio, or join the Alternative Commentary Collective on iHeartRadio and Radio Hauraki.

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