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Kimi Antonelli faces Max Verstappen in a likely Formula One title fight in 2027. Photo / Red Bull
Since the Monaco Grand Prix in June, when Kimi Antonelli won for the fifth time in a row for Mercedes, Max Verstappen has outscored him by two points.
That gap is small and is no criticism of Antonelli, who has had an exceptional season on his way to a maiden
world title. The Mercedes has been the fastest car, yes, but Antonelli has been largely untroubled by his rivals, through being consistently fast. What this does show, though, is that the 20-year-old Italian and Mercedes are unlikely to have it as easy again in 2027 and beyond.
The São Paulo Grand Prix at Interlagos was a weekend of contrasts at the front, partly thanks to the rain and numerous grid penalties. After a typically competitive qualifying from Antonelli (not on pole, but starting second) he had a strange and scrappy race, with spins in the wet that cost him a shot at victory, having led early on.
He finished in fifth and behind British teammate George Russell (who had an eventful race of his own) for only the fifth time this season. Dutch great Verstappen, meanwhile, stormed through the field from 21st and finished second, 14.6s behind the dominant McLaren of Lando Norris.
As seems to be the case most weekends, there is nothing more he could have achieved with the car beneath him.
After Verstappen won back-to-back races in Malaysia and Singapore, Antonelli said the thought of Verstappen chasing him for the title was scary. At that point, he had a 102-point lead over Russell and was 119 points clear of Verstappen, in fourth. There was, thankfully for Antonelli, no chance of Verstappen repeating last season’s charge, when he squeezed Norris to within two points of the title.
Antonelli’s title has been built on the run of five victories in the first six rounds, but it is not like he has fallen away since and had to cling on to his lead. No, he has extended it with strong results, even when other teams started challenging Mercedes. Unlike most of those behind him, he has rarely faltered. Verstappen, meanwhile, was so far behind after an appalling start to the season that he was never in the conversation.
Given the Dutchman’s late-season form, it is hard to put anybody else as favourite for 2027. Since the Barcelona Grand Prix in June, every time Verstappen has finished a grand prix, it has been on the podium, with an average finishing position of 2.0. Antonelli, by contrast, has an average finishing position of 3.5 in that time. That is slightly skewed by an unlucky 15th at Silverstone, but if you remove that, it improves to 2.5.
Although plenty of other drivers have shone at times, none of them have reached the consistency of Antonelli and, particularly, Verstappen. Although they are contrasting personalities, there are a lot of similarities in their aggressive driving styles and their ability to find the limits early on and stay there throughout the weekend.
It would be silly to write Ferrari and McLaren out of contention, as well as Russell. Verstappen can be challenged, whether by Antonelli or by someone else. Verstappen might be the standout driver, but the Red Bull is not yet the standout car. Having four teams in contention for both championships is a rarity. This season Mercedes, Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari have all won more than one race. In the last 25 years, the only other time that happened was in 2024.
At the start of a regulation cycle, significant gains can be made through upgrades and we should expect that to happen in the next couple of years. Verstappen and Red Bull are likely to need to be at the top of their game if they are to challenge in 2027.
There will be plenty of hard work done during the winter, too, which means that the team who finish the season strongest are not guaranteed to begin 2027 in the same spot.
That this is even a possibility, though, let alone a likely scenario, is a shot in the arm for Formula One, which has faced enormous criticism from fans and drivers over the electricity-heavy regulations that were introduced for this season. When regulations change significantly, it is normally one team who dominate, taking several seasons to be deposed.
After the 2022 changes, Verstappen and Red Bull won the first three drivers’ and first two constructors’ titles before McLaren deposed them. After the turbo-hybrid changes in 2014, Mercedes won seven double titles in a row. Indeed, Verstappen’s 2021 drivers’ title was the only championship they did not win from a possible 16.
Close competitive order at the front does not invalidate this criticism of the wrong-headed changes, but it does make them less important to the health of the sport. Let us not forget that Verstappen was so angered by the new regulations – and perhaps the lack of competitiveness of Red Bull – that his threats to walk away from Formula One seemed to have substance. Now he has committed his future to Red Bull, has a fast car and looks here to stay.
Even if we do not have a four-way fight at the front, the most likely scenario given the second half of this season is an Antonelli-Verstappen fight. How the sport would love that, another Red Bull-Mercedes grudge match but this time with Antonelli as the upstart and Verstappen the seasoned champion. That will be the sternest test of Antonelli and a far tougher one than this year. Yet it is one you suspect he will be capable of rising to and one he will relish, with his first championship to his name already. Verstappen might be the most fearsome driver to be tested against, but Antonelli has shown he has no reason to be scared.
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