Kiwis v Kangaroos: Why New Zealand should win the 2026 Rugby League World Cup final – Michael Burgess

Sunday night’s match (9.35pm NZT) is different. It is a genuine 50-50 contest. If you talk to local journalists and fans here in Brisbane, they are confident. Australia are favourites here and expected to win. But there is none of the bravado of years past. They know it is far from assured and they will have to be at their absolute best.

Locally, there is a feeling that Australia have the superior spine – Reece Walsh, Cam Munster, Tom Dearden and Harry Grant. Halfback Dearden wasn’t the first choice but seems a better fit than either Mitchell Moses or Sam Walker. Australian fans believe that the Kangaroos have more strike power on the edges, with the accurate view that their well-honed State of Origin combinations are an advantage.

But as always over here, it feels like the Kiwis are underestimated, perhaps due to the humble and under-the-radar approach of many of their players, such as James Fisher-Harris, Joseph Tapine, Moses Leota and Briton Nikora. But the Kangaroos should be worried. As they showed in the opening match, if the Kiwis get a roll on, they can rumble anyone.

Individually and collectively, they have the better forwards, a fearsome mix of size, power and flair. Halfback Jahrome Hughes has built across this tournament and their double-hooker combination – since Phoenix Crossland’s return – offers good balance.

The Kiwis have improved steadily across the past five weeks. Their effort against Tonga was the best yet. It was the ideal preparation. The ball was in play for 58 minutes – the highest of their tournament – and they had to dig deep, particularly in the first half.

That will help New Zealand, compared with Australia’s relative cruise against Samoa, while the Kiwis’ ruthless defence is a trump card. They also have the better goalkicker, a rare scenario over the years.

Of course, discipline will be crucial, along with limiting errors, while still playing footy. The Kiwis know that Kodi Nikorima will be targeted defensively – he always is – with the emphasis on the Jamayne Isaako-Harry Bostock aerial duel. They are also ready for heavy treatment on the likes of Casey McLean and Kalyn Ponga, two of their most important attacking weapons. Execution will be crucial to make the most of the platform laid by the forwards.

The occasion will also be a challenge, with some in Australia suggesting that the Kiwis could get stage fright. Undoubtedly, the Aussies have the experience of the Origin cauldron, but the New Zealand team don’t lack big-match experience, especially in grand finals. There are so many elements. The first quarter will be vital – as always – and there will be turning points, key moments and refereeing calls that sway momentum.

The feeling remains that the Kiwis are the superior team. They have better connection, better leadership and are the stronger overall unit. That isn’t enough to decide the contest – but it goes a long way. If the Kiwis play to their potential – and are more clinical than in the previous few weeks – they should be celebrating their second World Cup triumph late on Sunday night.

Herald prediction:

Kiwis 20 Kangaroos 16

Michael Burgess has been a Sports Journalist for the New Zealand Herald since 2005, covering the Olympics, Fifa World Cups, and America’s Cup campaigns. He is a co-host of the Big League podcast.

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